Predicting the development of dyspepsia recurrence for conscripts
https://doi.org/10.51922/2074-5044.2026.2.47
Abstract
Dyspepsia worsens the quality of life of patients and can progress to the development of erosive and ulcerative lesions. The purpose of this study was to develop a model for predicting the recurrence of dyspepsia in conscripts after the first episode of dyspepsia without erosive and ulcerative lesions of the upper gastrointestinal tract. The model was developed using the database of our own prospective study on the program of dynamic observation during military service (n = 136) by multiple linear regression based on probable risk factors. Based on the assessment of potential risk factors, a mathematical model of the likelihood of recurrence after the first episode of dyspepsia in patients without erosive and ulcerative lesions of the upper gastrointestinal tract (regression equation) has been developed: y = 1 / (1 + e – (k + 0,1202×X1 + 0,1759×X2 + 0,1465×X3 + 0,1318×X4)). There are 4 risk factors for recurrence of dyspepsia in conscripts without erosive and ulcerative lesions of the upper gastrointestinal tract: the first episode of dyspepsia in the first 3 months of military service, smoking, active inflammation of the gastric mucosa, H. pylori infection, on the basis of which a mathematical model of the likelihood of recurrence has been developed.
About the Authors
A. N. Yanul
Military Medical Institute in the Educational Institution «Belarusian State Medical University»
Belarus
Belarus
Minsk
N. N. Silivontchik
Institute of Advanced Training and Retraining of Healthcare Personnel of the educational institution «Belarusian State Medical University»
Belarus
Belarus
Minsk
Yu. V. Meshcharakou
Institute of Advanced Training and Retraining of Healthcare Personnel of the educational institution «Belarusian State Medical University»
Belarus
Belarus
Minsk
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Review
For citations:
Yanul A.N., Silivontchik N.N., Meshcharakou Yu.V. Predicting the development of dyspepsia recurrence for conscripts. Military Medicine. 2026;(2):47-53. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.51922/2074-5044.2026.2.47
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